2024 US Election Betting Odds: Trump vs. Harris – Who’s Leading?
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is coming in hot, with betting odds buzzing as former President Donald Trump faces off against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Having a punt on an election result isn't anything new however. Betting on U.S. elections has a long history, dating back to the 19th century when political wagering was a common fixture, offering insight into public opinion long before modern polling became standard.
Let’s break down where the US Election odds stand.
Key Takeaways
- Trump Leads in Betting Odds: Betting platforms like Betfair and Polymarket favour Trump, showing a 63-66% chance of victory, though Harris remains in the race.
- Swing States are Key: Odds point to tight battles in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with these states likely pivotal in the election.
- Betting Odds Reflect Public Sentiment but Aren't Guarantees: While odds reveal sentiment, past elections, like 2016, show they aren’t always accurate predictors.
Current Betting Odds: Who’s the Favourite?
As of late October, betting platforms have shifted gears, leaning towards Trump as the likely winner:
- Betfair Exchange: Trump is at 1.58 (or a 63% implied chance), while Harris trails at 2.72 (about 37%).
- Polymarket: Another platform putting Trump ahead, with a 66% chance for the win and 34% for Harris.
- Bet365: Trump’s odds are at -200 (roughly 66.6%), with Harris at +170 (about 37%).
The spread between the US election odds suggests that betting markets are quite confident in Trump’s edge, though the gap isn’t large enough to rule Harris out. In a race like this, numbers change fast, and even a minor event could see Harris’s odds leap.
What the Polls Say
Polling data adds another layer to the mix. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently holds a slim national lead at 48.1% over Trump’s 46.7%. But RealClearPolitics shows a near tie, with Trump just 0.4% ahead. The take? Betting odds might favour Trump, but pollsters are hedging their bets on a close contest.
Swing States: Battleground for the Win
Swing states are where things get exciting. Betting odds reflect just how tight these regions are, as they often decide who takes the Oval Office:
- Pennsylvania: Trump is slightly favoured with -150, while Harris holds at +120.
- Michigan: Harris leads here at -125, with Trump close behind at +100.
- Wisconsin: Odds show Trump at -125, with Harris at a narrow +100.
These odds reveal just how razor-thin the margins are. For Trump and Harris, a win in any of these states could make or break their chances.
Factors Shaping the Odds
The Odds aren't coming out of the blue—they’re based on countless factors, from recent debates to economic shifts.
Economic indicators, like mortgage rates and inflation, play a role. For instance, falling gas prices and rising incomes could bolster Harris's position, while Trump’s hardline stances resonate with voters concerned about security and the economy.
Another player? Wall Street. Major investors are placing bets of their own by aligning portfolios with an expected Trump victory. Bitcoin, gold, and oil stocks have seen increased interest, suggesting that financial markets are reading the odds in Trump’s favour.
Betting Odds: A Reliable Forecast?
While betting odds offer a fascinating window into election outcomes, they’re not infallible. Case in point? The 2016 election, where odds heavily favoured Clinton, only for Trump to pull an upset. Plus, high-stakes bets from a few wealthy players can skew these numbers, which makes it essential for bettors to keep a healthy scepticism.
With Election Day fast approaching, both betting odds and polls show a nail-biter. Trump may be leading in the markets, but Harris is close behind. Betting on the election isn’t just about dollars—it’s about reading the pulse of a divided nation.
And as we’ve seen before, nothing’s set in stone.
Max is our resident sports betting expert. He brings over 15 years of experience as a sports betting authority to AusCasinos, giving readers the latest sports odds info and details of you to bet safely.
Read more about the authorLatest News
